Right, this isn’t looking so good anymore.

Initially, it did seem as if Ireland’s chances of being seeded for a play-off spot were very unlikely. Then a couple of results went their way. But THEN it has come back around again.

The UEFA rankings haven’t been particularly generous in bumping Martin O’Neill’s men up and, even though a famous result against Germany will be considered in the next update, Ireland now need to catch Sweden in the rankings who will have two wins under their belts (compared to Ireland one) once they beat Moldova.

Here are the third-placed teams at present.

And, although one team go through automatically as the best third-placed team, the bad news for Ireland is that it will probably be Hungary (who are ranked below them). Ireland would’ve preferred a team ranked higher than them to go through automatically.

Points are accumulated from games against the top five seeds. The bottom seeds in each group (Gibraltar in Ireland’s case) are not taken into account.

So Hungary could be gone. That makes it tougher for Ireland to be seeded.

If Ukraine beat Spain, they go through automatically – that’s good news for Ireland. They will move up the rankings.

But they need to beat Spain. So let’s assume Hungary will keep their place.

The slightly good news is that Croatia should also be gone from the third place teams.

They have one game left against Malta. We presume they’ll win.

Norway are away to Italy and must win if Croatia do (a draw is no good to them).

Norway should drop down to third and they are ranked below Ireland.

So it would then look like this.

Even though Norway come in for Croatia and Ireland are bumped up one, the Irish are still outside the play-off spots.

Ireland would need to catch Sweden when the rankings are updated but that is unlikely considering they will have won both of their two games. Ireland won one, lost one.

Denmark lost both of theirs and didn’t even score but it is such a big jump to overtake them. We’ll see,

Ireland’s best hope…

Cyrpus host Bosnia in a win or bust last game on Tuesday. Should they win, they overtake Bosnia and come into third and, being ranked below Ireland, who move up.

Another way, if Cyprus even hold Bosnia to a draw, a win for Israel (against Belgium albeit) would see them come third. And, again, Ireland would move up the rankings in Bosnia’s absence.

Another hope…

Slovakia are ranked below Ireland and still not home and hosed.

If Ukraine (ranked higher than Ireland) win, they’re through as best-placed third team anyway but if they draw and  Slovakia lose, Ireland would move up a spot in the seeded positions.

Ukraine are at home to Spain.

Worse still, Slovakia are away to Luxembourg.

So don’t expect much change in that group anyway.

Ireland’s last hope…

UEFA move Ireland up the rankings past either Denmark or Bosnia. But don’t expect that to happen either.

Likely play-off opponents

These are the teams that Ireland could now face in November.

If non-seeded:

• Ukraine
• Bosnia
• Denmark
• Sweden/Croatia

If seeded:

• Norway
• Turkey
• Slovenia
• Cyrpus/Israel

Unfortunately, it looks like Ireland will be non-seeded too.

What Ireland want to happen

To be seeded, Ireland need Croatia to win and Italy not to lose firstly to get Croatia away from this pot and bring Norway in. Here are Ireland’s five options to be seeded.

On Monday night, if Ukraine beat Spain and on Tuesday, Croatia and Italy don’t lose – IRELAND ARE SEEDED.

On Tuesday night, if Cyrpus and Croatia win and Italy don’t lose – IRELAND ARE SEEDED.

On Monday night, if Luxembourg hold Slovakia and Ukraine beat Spain (and then Croatia wins and Italy don’t lose) – IRELAND ARE SEEDED.

On Tuesday night, if Croatia win, Italy don’t lose, Bosnia don’t win AND Israel win – IRELAND ARE SEEDED.

On Monday night, Ukraine draw with Spain and Luxembourg beat Cyprus (and don’t forget Croatia and Italy to win as well to knock Norway down to third) – IRELAND ARE SEEDED.

Complicated, yes. But just keep an eye on those teams – trust us, it works!