In one way, this isn’t a surprise.
Any team that sits fifteenth after 10 games with 11 points, following five losses, and just three wins, is unlikely to be considered a contender for the a place in the top four at the end of May.
However, when that team is Chelsea, the defending Premier League champions, with world class players and a highly successful manager, there’s some who’d argue the Blues can still turn their season around and qualify for the Champions League.
Yet, these stats suggest that Chelsea’s only hope of playing in the world’s top club competition is by winning it outright this season, (or if they were to win the Europa League).
Reddit user and Chelsea fan Trojaar looked at the example of Arsenal in previous seasons, and the average points per game Jose Mourinho’s side will need for the remaining 28 games, and comes to the perfectly reasonable conclusion that Chelsea will drop out of the top four this season.
Over the past five seasons, the average number of points required to finish fourth has been 72, which may spell bad news for Chelsea fans. This would mean Chelsea need 61 points from their remaining 28 games, or 2.2 points per game.
The lowest points total for a team in fourth over the past six seasons has been 68, gained by Arsenal back in 2011.
Let’s say, for arguments sake, no other team, outside of Manchester United, Arsenal and Manchester City, stake a genuine claim to a top four place, Chelsea will need 57 points from their remaining 28 games, to reach this total.
This would mean Mourinho’s side will need to gain, on average, two points per game.
To put these figures into perspective, when Chelsea won the league last season with 87 points, they averaged 2.3 points per game.
So, Chelsea will need to dramatically improve their form – in effect, play like champions, and hope clubs such as Liverpool and Spurs don’t go on a run of form.
Or they can bring back Roberto Di Matteo as manager, finish sixth and win the Champions League final on penalties after being outplayed for 120 minutes, denying Spurs a place in the Champions League.
