Is Trump going to upset the pollsters again?
When Donald Trump won the 2016 US presidential elections it rocked the political (and wider) world. Throughout the election, pollsters in the United States had believed that Hillary Clinton would walk it, only for America’s version of ‘Shy Tories’ to push the now president over the line with a narrow victory.
Much like in 2016, this election’s Democratic nominee, Joe Biden, is expected to defeat Trump, whose approval ratings have been in the negative for the majority of his presidency, and have only gotten worse due to his handling of the coronavirus pandemic.
Back then, the conventional wisdom was that Clinton will seal the win, before FOX 13 pollster Matt Towery appeared on the network stating his belief that Trump would be victorious in the key state of Florida.
Now he’s back, claiming once again that his data predicts a victory for Trump there. “My final projection for Florida is Donald Trump will carry the state by at least a point, maybe a little better than he did last time – maybe even getting closer to two points,” he said.
According to Newsweek, the factors behind Towery’s prediction are the similarities in polling compared to 2016, Trump’s successes in Miami compared to four years ago, and an apparent growth in enthusiasm among Florida’s Latin American and African American voters.
In 2016, Trump won Florida with 49 percent of the vote, compared to Hillary Clinton’s 47.8%.
