The ‘risk corridor’ has been revealed
Nasa has revealed a list of possible countries that could be hit by an asteroid in 2032.
The asteroid named 2024 YR4, which is believed to be around the size of Big Ben, currently has a one-in-43 (2.3 per cent) chance of hitting Earth in 2032.
David Rankin, a scientist at NASA’s Catalina Sky Survey Project, has projected a ‘risk corridor’ for the asteroid that shows the large stretch of Earth that could be hit.
Rankin’s ‘risk corridor’ stretches from South America across the Pacific Ocean, across south Asia, the Arabian Sea and Africa.
Specific countries that may be impacted include Venezuela, Colombia, Ecuador, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Sudan and Nigeria.
A precise location can not be identified as it would depend on the rotation of the Earth at the moment of impact.
Meanwhile, an international team are using the James Webb Space Telescope to determine how much damage the asteroid could do.
In 1908, Siberia was hit by the Tunguska asteroid which was also a similar size and it destroyed 830 square miles of forest.
2024 YR4 was first discovered in December 2024 by the Asteroid Terrestial-impact Last Alert System station in Chile, funded by NASA.
When it was first discovered it only had a 1.3 per cent probability of hitting earth but it was still at the top of NASA’s risk list.
It is estimated that the asteroid could flatten structures for up to two miles in any direction from the impact size, however the size estimates could be incorrect.
Determining the size of an asteroid involves looking at it through a powerful telescope, and figuring out the size through the brightness of the light reflected from its surface.
A spokesperson from the European Space Agency said, to the Daily Mail: “Astronomers around the world are using powerful telescopes to measure the asteroid’s orbit as accurately as possible. But knowing its orbit will only tell us the asteroid could impact Earth, not how significant an impact could be.
“It is very important that we improve our size estimate for 2024 YR4: the hazard represented by a 40 m asteroid is very different from that of a 90 m asteroid.”
It is hoped the James Webb Space Telescope will solve this problem, as it uses infrared sensors to look at the heat radiating off the asteroid, giving them a more accurate estimate of size.
