The lament for absent friends dominated the build-up to Cheltenham but as the main event comes into focus it’s all about those who have turned up for the Gold Cup.
Bristol De Mai represents the Nigel Twiston Davies yard that won the Gold Cup with Imperial Commander back in 2010. Connections are bullish, “Nige” is rarely any other way, but he needs to be forgiven his last run. He is almost double the price he was before that disappointing run. He has festival form and could be a forgotten horse.
Champagne West,won the Thyestes Chase at Gowran in impressive fashion when last seen. His jumping seems to have improved this season, the stable are flying after winning the Champion Chase on Wednesday, but it is questionable if the form of his last win is good enough for him to contend here.
Cue Card is being touted as the people’s horse and if he does win a Gold Cup, the fancy new roof at Cheltenham may be blown off. Paddy Brennan is adamant he would have won last year, but he didn’t, he hit the deck three out. His age is a massive negative, but he has fewer questions to answer than many in this field.
It’s hard to believe Djakadam is only eight. Two placings in better Gold Cups than this mean he is deservedly near the top of the market. It’s was a tough start to the week week for Willie Mullins, who has been runner-up in six Gold Cups in the past without winning. This horse just cannot be out of the frame and is highly likely to go off favourite. Especially given Willie’s winners on Thursday.
Empire of Dirt, most likely won’t run having contested the Ryanair on Thursday.
Irish Cavalier lowered the colours of Cue Card earlier in the season when winning the Charlie Hall. That was his Gold Cup, his runs since suggest may struggle to beat his fifth placed finish last year.
Minella Rocco has no stamina doubts having won the National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham last year, but his jumping will be a concern, he made a crucial mistake when finishing third at Cheltenham in November, then fell at Aintree and unshipped his rider at Leopardstown. Noel Fehily has had a brilliant week so far, but he’ll need to be at his best to get this fellow around. If he can, then he has a place chance, but that’s a big if.
More of That is similar to his stablemate Minella Rocco in that he is a festival winner but failed to complete last time out. He has the class to win a Gold Cup, given the way he beat Annie Power in 2015. Sir AP McCoy schooled him recently and it made him want to come out of retirement! A schooling ground isn’t the Gold Cup though, and since that Stayers Hurdle victory his career has been largely disappointing. He’s an unattractive betting proposition.
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Native River is one of the horses of the season, having won the Hennessy and the Welsh National and maybe if he had a different rider in 2016 he’d be a previous Cheltenham Festival winner too. Denman won the Hennessy en route to Gold Cup Success, and Synchronised won the Welsh National before winning the Gold Cup albeit the following season. Native River displayed previously concealed speed at Ascot last time; he looks the likeliest winner of this year’s Gold Cup.
Outlander has some nice form coming into the Gold Cup having finished second to Djakadam in the John Durkan and winning the Lexus at Christmas. The owner, trainer and jockey won the Gold Cup last year, but Outlander is no Don Cossack and his poor runs at Cheltenham are a concern, even if the form of the stable is not.
Saphir du Rheu from the Paul Nicholls yard looks to be running because he’d have no chance in handicaps with a big weight. He beat a few Grand National types in the mud at Kelso last time, but all he has shown in the last two years suggests a Gold Cup victory is well beyond him.
Sizing John (above) spent two years as Douvan’s plaything, finishing second to him five times. Stepping up in trip, and thus avoiding Douvan has brought him two victories for new trainer Jessica Harrington. Stepping up in trip again is a definite concern but his jockey has been confident on the preview circuit. His price is short enough given those stamina concerns.
Smad Place had a brilliant season last year winning the Hennessy and The Cotswold chase, but he finished it with a disappointing run in the Gold Cup and he’s been a shadow of his former self since.
Tea For Two made history when he was the first female ridden winner of a grade one chase in the UK. He hasn’t won since and that won’t change in the Gold Cup.
Prediction
Winner: Native River
Placed: Djakadam
Lively one at a big price: Bristol De Mai
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