It wouldn’t exactly come as a shock to see Conor McGregor vs. Nate Diaz in California on August 5, 2017.
The definitive timeline for McGregor’s current hiatus from the UFC was revealed this week when UFC president Dana White announced that ‘The Notorious’ would be out for ten months.
Given that he last fought in November, that would take McGregor up to around August, 2017 in relation to a most likely return date.
Interestingly, there is only one UFC pay-per-view already scheduled for the second half of next year and it is slated for August 5 in Anaheim, California.
The promotion was due to host UFC 208 in Anaheim next month but a shake-up saw the February date in Brooklyn, New York renamed UFC 208 while the Anaheim event was pushed back to August.
In a bid to announce that he was willing to wait for a third shot at McGregor rather than take a fight in the interim, the Irishman’s Stockton rival Nate Diaz claimed that he would also be taking ten months off.
Imma take 10 months off.. 💯💯💯
— Nathan Diaz (@NateDiaz209) December 7, 2016
It would certainly make the most business sense for Diaz to hold out for round three with ‘The Notorious’ rather than risk losing relevance in the title picture, as well as momentum, by taking on one of the monsters ahead of him in the lightweight rankings and come unstuck.
While Diaz hails from Stockton, 300 miles north of Anaheim, booking him for a headliner’s spot on a California card would see his hardcore following come out in force to see him take on his fiercest foe in the rubber match.
California would also make sense for McGregor considering the fact that he’s currently not in the best graces with the Nevada State Athletic Commission, the governing body that oversaw almost half of the UFC’s pay-per-views this year already.
At the time of writing, five of the UFC’s eleven pay-per-view events this year took place in Las Vegas but McGregor has yet to pay his NAC fine from his bottle-throwing incident back in August so they’re not going to just welcome him back with open arms.
Not only that but he’s also taking legal action for that punishment to be challenged so it will likely be in a different state that he makes his comeback and we know that the California State Athletic Commission would be quite happy to approve a McGregor bout as they even granted him a boxing licence in their state just last week.
Diaz, of course, became the first man to overturn McGregor in the Octagon when he submitted him on short notice at UFC 196 in March before the Dubliner tied the series at 1-1 with his wearying war against Diaz in August.
Diaz is currently fifth in the lightweight rankings so granting him a 155lbs title shot against McGregor upon his return would not be outside the realms of possibility.
In the meantime, top contenders Khabib Nurmagomedov and Tony Ferguson will be able to do battle at an event in April or May for the chance to take on the winner of a potential McGregor vs. Diaz trilogy fight, with the title on the line.
So the location makes sense, the date makes sense and both camps seem thoroughly content on holding out for that specific match-up.
Diaz’s most lucrative next bout comes against McGregor and vice versa.
Not only that but McGregor’s head coach John Kavanagh has named a third fight opposite the TUF 5 winner as the most tactically interesting one on the table.
“For me, interest-wise, the Nate fight would interest me greater,” Kavanagh said on a recent episode of The MMA Hour.
“If it’s Tony or if it’s Khabib then great. They’re two fantastic fighters. There’d be a lot to learn in the preparation for them and both would be extremely interesting fights to watch and problems to solve and to see Conor beating both of them and how he does it would be very interesting for me.
“But I do think Nate would be quite a bit better than either of them.”
McGregor himself has dismissed the notion of defending his newly won lightweight title against Nurmagomedov due to his track record of injuries and pulling out of fights.
“He doesn’t fight frequently enough for my liking,” McGregor said of the undefeated Russian after UFC 205. “For me to commit to something like that, I’m going to need solid proof that people are going to show up and he’s a consistent pull-out merchant.”
The Irishman’s silence on a potential defence against Ferguson has been deafening which would lead you to believe that he’s favouring a clash with Diaz, who certainly seems up for the challenge.
So when you look at all the variables, that match-up on that date in that location would make the most sense. Wouldn’t it?
But, hey, the fight game is as fickle as McGregor is unpredictable so it’s perhaps jumping the gun ever so slightly to definitively say it’s going to happen.
However if it does, don’t be surprised.
