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08th Feb 2016

The Premier League run-in: What the last 38 games tell us

Simon Lloyd

25 games down and the Premier League season is fast approaching its climax.

With Leicester City taking a firm grip of top spot with their victory over Manchester City, many are now finally considering them as genuine potential champions.

Manchester City v Leicester City - Premier League

At the halfway point of last season, a newly-promoted Leicester side had seemed destined to return to the Championship, only to string together a run of impressive results to keep them away from danger.

With their form during this campaign and such a strong finish to last season, we pondered how the league table would look if it was based on the previous 38 games (the 25 played this season plus the final 13 of last).

Having looked at the entire league table- which can be seen at the bottom of the article – here are five things we’ve learned from it.

Leicester aren’t top – but it’s very close

Perhaps a little surprisingly, over the course of the last 38 games, Leicester aren’t top. Instead, Arsenal, who finished the last campaign by winning nine of their final 13 fixtures, are ahead by a point.

Leicester City v Arsenal - Premier League

However, this will do little to dent Leicester’s confidence as the season reaches its final weeks – especially if they come away from the Emirates victorious at the weekend.

Newcastle have been worse than Aston Villa

Given the woeful season Aston Villa have had, it’s a surprise to see Newcastle United have fared worse in the last 38 Premier League games.

Newcastle United v West Bromwich Albion - Premier League

In the current Premier League standings, Newcastle are hovering just above the relegation zone, eight points above Villa. Although the season would hardly be considered a huge success under Steve McClaren for those at St James’ Park, the fact that Villa are somehow above them over the last 38 games underlines how dismal things were under John Carver.

Liverpool continue to be mediocre

Having parted ways with Brendan Rodgers in October, Liverpool fans might have expected some improvement in results under Jurgen Klopp. Unfortunately, there’s no telling change just yet when it comes to points tallies.

Liverpool v Manchester United - Premier League

Interestingly, Chelsea, despite enduring a nightmarish title defence, are still three points ahead of Liverpool over the course of 38 games.

The Bilic effect has transformed West Ham’s fortunes

As West Ham limped towards a 12th place finish at the end of last season, they recorded nine points from their final 13 games – an average of less than 0.7 points per game. The end of Sam Allardyce’s reign at Upton Park is largely to blame for the reason West Ham are 13th over the last 38 games.

West Ham United v FC Lusitans - UEFA Europa League

This year however, the arrival of Slaven Bilic has proved successful. The team currently sit in sixth in the Premier League and have accumulated a total of 39 points, an average of a much healthier 1.56 points per game.

Although they will be disappointed with defeat to Southampton at the weekend, their success under their Croatian manager bodes well for any aspirations of bringing European football to their new Olympic Stadium next season.

Tottenham continue to put daylight between themselves and Man United 

With Leicester grabbing most of the headlines, the job done by Mauricio Pochettino at Spurs has perhaps not been appreciated as much as it should have been.

Norwich City v Tottenham Hotspur - Premier League

Having missed out on a top four berth in a transitional 2014/15, Spurs have kicked on and have opened up a seven point gap over Manchester United in the first 25 games of this season.

Although United fared marginally better towards the end of last season, Spurs are still a relatively comfortable five points ahead of Louis van Gaal’s men over the course of the last 38 games.

PL last 38