Back when the fixture list was made over the summer, few would have predicted this weekend’s match between Leicester and Arsenal to be a title decider.
But Claudio Ranieri’s men make the trip to North London with a five-point lead over the Gunners, and there’s no denying that Sunday’s result will go a long way to determining where the Premier League trophy ends up in May.
According to the Euro Club Index, which uses probability to predict the outcome of individual games and their impact on the season as a whole, Sunday’s clash could tilt the balance of the title race in Arsenal’s favour.
As things stand, the ECI predicts the Foxes to win the league on goal difference ahead of Arsene Wenger’s men, but that can all change depending on what happens at the weekend.
A win for the home team would see their probability of claiming the crown rise from 30.9% to 39.7%, while a defeat would elevate Leicester’s chances above the 50% mark. A draw, meanwhile, would hurt the Gunners more than it would help the Foxes.
Crucial for #Arsenal to beat Leicester. Here is how the match affects the title chances of both: #lcfc pic.twitter.com/6JU1wpE2Dw
— Euro Club Index (@EuroClubIndex) February 12, 2016
