The title will be changing hands at the end of the season.
Yeah, okay, so we didn’t need numbers, equations or algorithms to figure out that Chelsea will not be retaining the Premier League title after their shocking start to the season, but their malaise has contributed to one the most wide open title race in years.
Man City, Man United and Arsenal all look well positioned, whilst Spurs and Liverpool will also quietly fancy their chances of making New Year charges.
And all of those teams are still looking up at unfancied Leicester, who sit proudly at the summit of the table after 15 games.
But the number crunchers at Euro Club Index have picked their way through the season so far and reckon that the team that will be lifting the trophy is…
…wait for it…
…Arsenal.
Arsenal & Man City neck and neck in title race,Leicester replace Liverpool as 5th favourites https://t.co/GL5pn0Musq pic.twitter.com/GVZ4eFZDr8
— Euro Club Index (@EuroClubIndex) December 8, 2015
Yes, by looking at statistically probable outcomes of every game remaining in the Premier League season and using those results to predict the final league table, it is the Gunners who have the best chance of glory next May.
But only just.
Arsene Wenger’s men, currently second in the table, are given a 34.9 per cent chance of the title, a fraction ahead of Manchester City on 34.1 per cent. In fact, both sides are expected to finish the season on 75 points, which would equal the lowest total ever for a Premier League victor.
Manchester United rank third with a 21.3 per cent chance, ahead of Tottenham (4.4 per cent), Leicester (3.1 per cent) and Liverpool (1.5 per cent).
The Foxes are tipped to end the season in fifth, ahead of Jurgen Klopp’s Reds but behind Spurs, who finally make it back to the Champions League.
At the other end of the table it’s bad news for the current bottom three of Aston Villa, Sunderland and Newcastle, meaning all three promoted sides will stay up, whilst Chelsea are backed to climb to eighth.
