The will of the people appears to have changed
Firstly, let’s establish that it’s impossible to tell exactly how accurate polling is. Different surveys produce different results, and recent history has shown them to be generally not as trustworthy as many would want to believe. Nevertheless, they are the best method we have of gaging public opinion, and one recent poll suggests public opinion has swayed.
New data from a British Social Attitudes survey suggests that 55 per cent of Brits would vote Remain if there were to be a second referendum on membership of the European Union. Back in 2016, when the referendum was held, 48% of those who voted opted for Remain, compared to the 52 per cent who voted Leave.
The data, gathered by the National Centre for Social Research, also showed that only six per cent of people surveyed believe the UK will secure a ‘good’ Brexit deal – that’s a 27 per cent drop from when Article 50 was first triggered in March 2017.
This data is based on interviews conducted between 24 January and 17 February with 2,654 adults who had previously participated in the British Social Attitudes Survey.
These statistics come less than a week after Theresa May ensured the public that she was on their side in a passionate speech that blamed MPs for creating the mess that we find ourselves in currently.
These findings prompted the centre’s senior research fellow Sir John Curtice to warn MPs discussing Brexit in Parliament. “There is seemingly room for debate about whether leaving the EU is still the ‘will’ of a majority of voters in the UK,” he said.
“Perhaps the key message for the politicians as they decide what to do is that those on all sides of the argument might be best advised to show a degree of humility when claiming to know what voters really want.”
The research also found that 79 per cent of those who voted to leave the EU in 2016 would vote the same way in a second referendum, and that two thirds of former Leave voters who had changed their mind now believed that Brexit would be bad for the British economy.
The main factor in this apparent swing towards Remain seems to be that of the people who didn’t vote in 2016, 56% would now vote Remain, compared to the 19 per cent who would vote Leave.
While the data gathered does suggest a new referendum would result in a 55-45 win for Remain, Sir John did issue a note of caution, saying: “The Remain lead in our data is not sufficiently large for anyone to be sure what the outcome of any second ballot would be, especially as any such ballot would occur after a campaign that might result in a shift of opinion in one direction or the other.”
“There must be a question mark about whether those who did not vote first time around would necessarily do so second time around,” he added.
He concluded by saying the results do pose questions about whether Brexit can still be considered the ‘will of the people’.
“It is enough to raise doubts about whether, two and half years after the original ballot, leaving the EU necessarily continues to represent the view of a majority of the British public.”
