Remember: there’s only one set of numbers that matters, and that’s the result of the election.
Nevertheless, it’s always interesting to see what the pollsters are saying, and the latest from polling company YouGov is another set of damning numbers for the Conservatives.
According to YouGov, the Tories are set to miss out on a Commons majority by 21 seats. The latest prediction sees the Conservatives winning 305 seats, shy of the 326 required to pass laws by majority.
YouGov 2017 election model estimates (5 June)
CON 42%, 268-344 seats
LAB 38%, 234-299 seats
For full results visit: https://t.co/1eYpO4jRQq pic.twitter.com/8tAki1IGtw— YouGov (@YouGov) June 5, 2017
When Theresa May called the election on 18 April, her party had a massive lead and was expected to win by a landslide. This poll is the first to suggest that the Prime Minister will not only miss out on a comfortable win but will in fact fail to win by a majority.
The poll also predicts Labour winning 268 seats, an increase from the 261 predicted over the weekend.
Other polling companies have much cheerier predictions for the Conservatives, with ICM polling suggesting the Tories have an 11 point lead over Labour, though this has narrowed considerably since the start of campaigning.
