The NHS faces being overwhelmed by a third wave of the coronavirus pandemic with levels as high as 20x that of the second wave.
Existing winter pressures and an increase in covid cases from seasonal socialising could force the health service to cancel elective and non-emergency procedures in many of its hospitals.
According to the Health Services journal, a trade publication, the second wave began in September with over 400 covid patients in English hospitals and peaked at nearly 14,000 in late November. We’re currently trending downwards with 12,200 patients currently being treated in English hospitals.
NHS bosses are worried that anything over 5,000 patients going into the new year, could leave the healthcare system vulnerable to being overwhelmed in an already tricky time of year culminating in more covid patients than at the height of the first wave.
During the first wave, many NHS trusts cancelled all non-emergency procedures to treat the influx of covid patients, leaving many vulnerable patients without care.
January and February are consistently the busiest months in the NHS’ calendar, with seasonal flu, Norovirus and staff holidays after Christmas meaning there’s often an influx around this time.
It’s thought that adding patients who get ill as a result of Christmas socialising could stretch many trusts to breaking point, especially if staff have not been able to get vaccinated in time.
NHS Providers chief executive Chris Hopson told HSJ.co.uk: ”Given the NHS’s bed base has been reduced by nine per cent through covid infection control measures, if there is anything like five to seven thousand covid patients at the end of the year that is going to be a major problem for the service.”
