But with Putin’s failure could come even more aggression
The invasion of Ukraine isn’t going to Vladimir Putin’s plan.
Since his forces waged an illegal war with a sovereign nation, there has been untold grief and suffering. Two million Ukrainian refugees have fled their homes. And a total of 406 Ukrainian civilians have died according to official UN figures released on Monday, with a warning that the real number could be much higher.
Today the outflow of refugees from Ukraine reaches two million people.
Two million.
— Filippo Grandi (@FilippoGrandi) March 8, 2022
But despite the horror inflicted on Ukraine, the city of Kherson remains the only city to have officially fallen to the Russians. Currently, the cities of Mauripol, Kharkiv and Mykolaiv and the capital Kyiv remain under siege.
Intense bombing is devastating Mauripol, where civilians have had no access to heat, power, running water or phones since Friday. An evacuation failed in the city for the second day in a row, with Russians and Ukrainians blaming each other for violating the ceasefire. Dead bodies are strewn across the streets.
The war is showing no signs of ending. But according to experts, the Russian leader’s plan is not going as he hoped.
Here is exactly why, in the end, Putin could lose.
Putin’s forces are, to put it lightly, a “mess”
There’s no denying that Putin began his invasion with numbers, and lots of them. But what seemed to be endless flows of troops, tanks and trucks have already diminished significantly compared to when they first invaded Ukraine.
These are the indicative estimates of Russia's losses as of March 8, according to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/eZHQUQCZlX
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) March 8, 2022
The Kremlin lost more troops in a week than the UK did in 20 years in Afghanistan, according to Chief of the Defence Staff Admiral Sir Tony Radakin.
He told the BBC how Russia has “got itself into a mess”, adding: “Russia hasn’t operated at this scale since the Second World War and it is incredibly complex and difficult.”
Some Russian troops don’t even want to be there
He is trying to do too much with too few troops
What’s more, is that Putin could end up with too few troops on the frontline to succeed with his current strategy.
Professor Michael Clarke, former director of the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), told Sky News: “This full scale offensive in Ukraine isn’t something they are used to. There are also a large number of conscripted men, many of whom do not want to be there.
“There are lots of reports that they’ve been kind of lacklustre, giving in, surrendering and that they don’t see why they should be fighting people who are basically their equals. As well as that, the whole plan was too thin – they were trying to do too much with 190,000 troops.”
Ukraine is resisting
What Putin may also have not anticipated, is for Ukrainians to put up such a fight – and for the rest of the world to show such strong solidarity with them.
Masses of civilians did not hesitate in stepping up to fight for their country. Over half a million Ukranian veterans are thought to have combat experience as a result of the years of war and tension since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014. Logistics and training within Ukraine’s army have improved significantly since then, and an estimated 100,000 soldiers have joined to make a total of around 260,000, The Guardian reports.
The invasion has sparked a global outcry – with thousands of people around the world calling on their leaders to help stop the war. Assets have been frozen, sanctions have been put in place, and some of the biggest companies in the world such as Netflix, TikTok, Samsung and credit card operators have withdrawn from Russia.
Asked whether Russia taking over Ukraine is inevitable, Sir Tony Radakin told the BBC: “No. I think we’ve seen that the Russian invasion is not going well.
“I think we’re also seeing remarkable resistance by Ukraine, both its armed forces and its people, and we’re seeing the unity of the whole globe coming together, applying pressure to Russia.
“Russia is suffering, Russia is an isolated power. It is less powerful than it was 10 days ago.
“Some of the lead elements of Russian forces have been decimated by the Ukrainian response. You’ve also seen basic failures in terms of maintenance and their kit failing.”
He has already lost the information war
Granted, Putin has successfully brainwashed a number of people within his own country. Russian TV programmes show debates in which people outright deny the invasion is taking place. Journalists are being told they can only use official government sources, and the Russian government is thought to be restricting access to some media outlets such as the BBC, as well as access to social media platforms.
In a video to be shown to Russian children, created by the Russian government, a 12-year-old Russian girl explains that they are going to be given “a lesson about world peace”. A male presenter then explains that images and videos circulating the internet are actually from other conflicts.
Propoganda in Putin’s own country has worked to such an extent, that some Russians don’t even believe their own Ukrainian relatives when they tell them they are being invaded. Oleksandra, a Ukrainian resident whose parents live in Russia, told the BBC:”My parents understand that some military action is happening here. But they say: ‘Russians came to liberate you. They won’t ruin anything, they won’t touch you. They’re only targeting military bases’.”
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Russian police officers detain a man during an unsanctioned protest in Moscow on March 6, 2022 (Getty)
But outside of this bubble of manipulation, a lot of Russians can see Putin’s actions for exactly what they are – brutal and heartless. On Sunday, over 4,300 people in Russia were detained for protesting against the war. Some media outlets are rejecting calls to only source from Russian government sources.
In an opinion poll published by CNN the day before the invasion officially began, 43 per cent of Russians said use of military action against Ukraine to join to Russia would be wrong, 36 per cent said it would be right, and the rest were unsure.
But it won’t be over anytime soon
While it might be reassuring to hear that Putin’s war is not going exactly to plan, this doesn’t mean the war will end tomorrow.
Sir Tony Radakin said: “No. I think we’ve seen Russian invasion is not going well.”
But he did warn that, with Putin’s failure could come even more aggression.
Sir Tony said: “I think there is a real risk because Russia is struggling with its objectives on the ground in Ukraine – and we’ve seen from Russia’s previous actions in Syria and in Chechnya – where it will turn up the violence, it will lead to more indiscriminate killing and more indiscriminate destruction,” he said.
“We have to keep applying the pressure to Russia that this is outrageous and that the sense that because your invasion isn’t going very well, that you just become more and more reckless in applying violence is totally unacceptable.”
What about nuclear war?
With Putin, there is always the threat of nuclear war. Here’s what we need to know about whether he will actually use them.
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