MPs have called the analysis “disgraceful.”
Leaked government Brexit forecasts show the UK being worse off in every modelled scenario.
The Buzzfeed News exclusive serves as further proof that Brexit is bad for our economy.
But while the forecast is gloomy the hit isn’t as bad as first thought – the figures reported are actually an improvement on previous predictions. The UK will be more inhibited than crippled.
The assessment estimates the UK will see a 0.1 to 0.4 per cent boost to GDP from new trade deals but that figure is outweighed by a no-deal scenario that would hamper growth by up to 8 per cent.
A Government spokesperson did not dispute the authenticity of the document.
SNP MP Joanna Cherry called the forecast’s existence “disgraceful,” having previously been led to believe it did not.
This comes as no surprise but what’s really disgraceful is that I & other MPs & the House of Commons have repeatedly been told by Ministers of the Crown that economic impact assessments do not exist. We won’t let this lie #BrexitShambles https://t.co/Bpz4pQUfUL
— Joanna Cherry KC (@joannaccherry) January 30, 2018
Dated January 2018, the report titled “EU Exit Analysis – Cross Whitehall Briefing” found that almost every sector of the economy included in the analysis would be negatively impacted in all three of the following scenarios – a no-deal outcome operating under World Trade Organisation rules, the agreement of a comprehensive trade agreement with the EU and, the softest option, continued single market access via membership of the European Economic Area.
Chemicals, clothing, manufacturing, food and drink, and cars and retail will all be damaged significantly, only the agriculture sector would not be adversely affected under the WTO scenario.
The assessment forecast that in such a”no deal” scenario, overall growth would be reduced by 8 per cent over the next 15 years compared to current forecasts.
Under comprehensive free trade agreement with the EU, UK growth would be 5 per cent lower over that period and the soft option would, in the longer term, still lower growth by 2 per cent.
These calculations do not factor interim Brexit costs to the economy like adjusting to new customs arrangements.
While the figures are hardly inspiring, they actually represent an upgrade by the Treasury on its previous Brexit forecasts.
The government’s April 2016 analysis said the economy would be 3.8 percentage points smaller if we were to stay in the European Economic Area. As above, that has now been revised down to 2 per cent.
The 5 per cent impact on growth of a free trade deal outside the single market is an improvement on the Treasury’s initial guess of 6.2 per cent.
But a no-deal scenario has been increased to 8 per cent from 7.5 per cent.
A Government spokesperson said: “We have already set out that the government is undertaking a wide range of ongoing analysis in support of our ongoing EU exit negotiations and preparations.
“We have been clear that we are not prepared to provide a running commentary on any aspect of this ongoing internal work.”
