It’s more likely Brexit will be cancelled than the United Kingdom will leave the European Union without a deal
A poll of economists has found that the UK leaving the EU without a deal is now less likely than Brexit being cancelled.
The latest research by Reuters showed very few predicting a “disorderly” departure but that a free-trade deal would be agreed.
Only one of the 51 respondents said a ‘no deal’ outcome was more likely than not, the average probability being 15 per cent – the lowest chance since Reuters began asking the question in July 2017.
BNP Paribas economists said: “Apart from the fact that no-deal Brexit is now less likely, the path ahead is as unclear as ever. A deal (and likely a softer Brexit) still seems more likely than not but we are sceptical that this will happen any time soon.”
The poll also found most respondents expect a raise in interest rates by the Bank of England to be pushed back.
Now delayed until October, the UK is not due to leave the EU until October 31 – contingent on a withdrawal agreement being passed in parliament.
As yet, prime minister Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement has suffered two historic defeats and a series of indicative votes in the House of Commons have failed to accrue a single majority. The slimmest margins of defeat have been for membership of the EU’s customs union and a second referendum.
European elections at the end of May draw closer. The Brexit party led by Nigel Farage is leading in the polls.
